Don't Stop
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 79
Thistledown · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Thistledown | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-05-20 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-05-02 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +0.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/02/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |
| 12/03/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 50% | -0.13 |
| 01/04/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |
| 02/05/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 25% | -0.62 |
| 20/05/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 67% | +0.01 |
| 06/07/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 27/07/2026 | 8th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 19/08/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 08/09/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 29% | -0.40 |