Erlan
7yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 81
Thistledown · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
9/5
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 4.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-02-25 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 9th | 6th | +3 |
| 2026-01-12 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2025-11-19 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-11-03 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-23 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/08/2025 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 25% | -0.38 |
| 01/09/2025 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 09/10/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 25% | -0.46 |
| 23/10/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 03/11/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 19/11/2025 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 12/01/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 33% | -0.27 |
| 25/02/2026 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |
| 05/08/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 25% | -0.51 |