1
Gamboling Ghost
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 80
Thistledown · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-16 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-28 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-08 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-01 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-13 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-01-13 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength84%
Delivery trend +5.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11/2025 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 33% | -0.55 |
| 08/12/2025 | 8th | 9/2 | 76% | 30% | -0.46 |
| 19/12/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 13/01/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 71% | -0.13 |
| 13/03/2026 | 8th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 01/04/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 25% | -0.38 |
| 08/04/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 86% | +0.12 |
| 28/04/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 86% | +0.02 |
| 16/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 83% | -0.11 |