Tonight
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 79
Thistledown · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
85%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-23 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-04 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-02-17 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-02-01 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-01-12 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | -2th | +3 |
| 2025-12-18 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -9.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 25/10/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 71% | -0.14 |
| 12/11/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 18/12/2025 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 12/01/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 01/02/2026 | 4th | 13/8 | 91% | 40% | -0.51 |
| 17/02/2026 | 7th | 3/1 | 84% | 0% | -0.84 |
| 04/03/2026 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 23/03/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |