1
Kettle Coalmine
5yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 60
Thistledown · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
9/5
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼1
Strength65%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 3.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-26 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2026-06-03 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength75%
Delivery trend -2.3% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/03/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 02/04/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 89% | +0.28 |
| 13/05/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 03/06/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 57% | -0.32 |
| 24/06/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 71% | -0.18 |
| 21/07/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 10/08/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 26/08/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 10/09/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |