Professor Nick

4yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 61

Thistledown · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼1

Strength71%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.3

Today:

Class gap: +1.3

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-20	Thistledown	?	6th	6th	0	4.0
2026-06-03	Thistledown	?	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-05-13	Thistledown	?	8th	8th	0	2.0
2026-04-09	Mahoning Valley	?	3rd	0th	+3	5.0
2026-03-25	Mahoning Valley	?	3rd	0th	+3	5.0
2026-03-10	Mahoning Valley	?	3rd	0th	+3	5.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 4-6 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▼

Strength4%

Delivery trend -8.7% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
05/01/2026	5th	10/1	47%	33%	-0.14
22/01/2026	5th	12/1	37%	43%	+0.06
04/02/2026	2nd	12/1	37%	80%	+0.43
10/03/2026	3rd	15/8	90%	33%	-0.57
25/03/2026	3rd	10/3	82%	60%	-0.22
09/04/2026	3rd	7/4	91%	60%	-0.31
13/05/2026	8th	11/2	71%	13%	-0.59
03/06/2026	5th	12/1	37%	0%	-0.37
20/08/2026	6th	6/1	68%	0%	-0.68