3
River Bye
5yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 65
Thistledown · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
86%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-15 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-09 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▲
Strength93%
Delivery trend +2.8% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/08/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 86% | -0.02 |
| 03/09/2025 | 3rd | 13/8 | 91% | 50% | -0.41 |
| 18/09/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 09/10/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 43% | -0.36 |
| 03/06/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 25% | -0.43 |
| 24/06/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 44% | +0.29 |
| 15/07/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 08/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 86% | +0.09 |
| 08/09/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |