IvyArcIvyArc
4

Truth N Soul

4yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 46

Thistledown · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f

#6

Rank

Odds

15/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼2
Strength74%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Held its own mid-division in 5 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: +2.1
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Mahoning Valley 07/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 43 · 1m 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/11/2025 · OR 43 par7/11C6OR 43C5 @ Mahoning Valley 20/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 53 · 1m Slo 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/12/2025 · OR 53 parC5 @ Mahoning Valley 22/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 48 · 6f Slo 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/01/2026 · OR 48 par22/01C5OR 48C5 @ Mahoning Valley 04/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 52 · 6f Slo 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/02/2026 · OR 52 parC5 @ Mahoning Valley 10/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR 55 · 6f 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/03/2026 · OR 55 par10/03C5OR 55C5 @ Mahoning Valley 25/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 62 · 1m Fas 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark25/03/2026 · OR 62 parC5 @ Mahoning Valley 09/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 54 · 6f 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/04/2026 · OR 54 par9/04C5OR 54C5 @ Thistledown 05/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 46 · 6f Fas 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/08/2026 · OR 46 parC8 @ Thistledown 08/09/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 44 · 6f Fas 119 · below its mark08/09/2026 · OR 44 par8/09C8OR 44projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-08Thistledown?10th10th0
2026-08-05Thistledown?7th4th+3
2026-04-09Mahoning Valley?6th3rd+3
2026-03-25Mahoning Valley?6th3rd+3
2026-03-10Mahoning Valley?4th1st+3
2026-02-04Mahoning Valley?6th3rd+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/114/029/048/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 4-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -2.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/11/20251st5/287%100%+0.13
20/12/20251st11/486%100%+0.14
22/01/20264th14/126%57%+0.31
04/02/20266th14/126%0%-0.26
10/03/20264th7/163%0%-0.63
25/03/20266th10/147%0%-0.47
09/04/20266th16/116%0%-0.16
05/08/20267th25/10%0%0.00
08/09/202610th25/10%10%+0.10