5
Vecchi
5yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 60
Thistledown · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-27 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-09 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-12 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength37%
Delivery trend -5.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/12/2025 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 67% | -0.25 |
| 15/01/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 75% | -0.01 |
| 03/02/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 89% | +0.13 |
| 12/02/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 80% | -0.11 |
| 09/03/2026 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 60% | -0.32 |
| 27/03/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 83% | +0.31 |
| 22/07/2026 | 7th | 2/1 | 89% | 25% | -0.64 |
| 19/08/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 60% | -0.27 |
| 10/09/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |