1
Chalon's First
4yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 72
Thistledown · Race 5 - Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
19%
Place Prob
21%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-28 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength50%
Delivery trend -3.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07/2024 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 60% | -0.11 |
| 24/09/2024 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 75% | +0.59 |
| 28/04/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 71% | -0.05 |
| 16/05/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 57% | -0.28 |
| 22/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |
| 13/07/2026 | 6th | 11/8 | 93% | 17% | -0.76 |
| 03/08/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 08/09/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 57% | +0.05 |