Simply Valid
7yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 88
Thistledown · Race 5 - Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
8/5
Win Prob
42%
Place Prob
32%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-02 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-05-02 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-06 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 83% | +0.01 |
| 28/08/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 17/09/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 20% | -0.27 |
| 06/10/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 25% | -0.36 |
| 02/05/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 86% | +0.04 |
| 11/06/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 20% | -0.27 |
| 02/07/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 83% | -0.06 |
| 27/07/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 57% | -0.30 |
| 19/08/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 29% | -0.45 |