7
Zimba Warrior
9yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 85
Thistledown · Race 5 - Claiming · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-16 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-02 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-24 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-11-17 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-09-01 | Del Mar | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-07-18 | Del Mar | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 3-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength44%
Delivery trend -2.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/2025 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 89% | -0.01 |
| 18/05/2025 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 07/06/2025 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 33% | -0.51 |
| 18/07/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 01/09/2025 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 25% | -0.49 |
| 17/11/2025 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |
| 24/11/2025 | 1st | 8/15 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 02/02/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 16/02/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 33% | -0.32 |