Big Lucky
4yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 93
Thistledown · Race 6 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-08-10 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-05-02 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-04-06 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-11 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-02-23 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -7.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/11/2025 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 09/01/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 05/02/2026 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 23/02/2026 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 75% | -0.19 |
| 11/03/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 06/04/2026 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 17% | -0.69 |
| 02/05/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |
| 10/08/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 17% | -0.31 |
| 07/09/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |