Eddie M

6yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 94

Thistledown · Race 6 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

11%

Place Prob

22%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength38%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.7

Today:

Class gap: -0.2

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-18	Thistledown	?	3rd	4th	−1	5.8
2026-07-28	Thistledown	?	3rd	4th	−1	5.8
2026-06-30	Thistledown	?	1st	2nd	−1	7.8
2026-06-11	Thistledown	?	3rd	4th	−1	5.8
2026-05-21	Thistledown	?	4th	2nd	+2	7.8
2026-05-05	Thistledown	?	5th	3rd	+2	6.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 2-5 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▲

Strength45%

Delivery trend +3.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
14/01/2026	4th	11/4	86%	50%	-0.36
03/03/2026	5th	10/3	82%	20%	-0.62
17/03/2026	2nd	11/4	86%	80%	-0.06
05/05/2026	5th	13/8	91%	33%	-0.58
21/05/2026	4th	9/1	53%	25%	-0.28
11/06/2026	3rd	10/3	82%	50%	-0.32
30/06/2026	1st	7/2	82%	100%	+0.18
28/07/2026	3rd	2/1	89%	50%	-0.39
18/08/2026	3rd	10/3	82%	60%	-0.22