4
Hot Gunner
4yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 91
Thistledown · Race 6 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
11%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-08-18 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-20 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength64%
Delivery trend -8.2% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/02/2026 | 1st | 25/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 13/03/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.22 |
| 02/04/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |
| 19/04/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 90% | +0.90 |
| 11/05/2026 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 38% | -0.48 |
| 24/06/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 20/07/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 18/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 07/09/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |