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6

Reign Champagne

4yo Filly · 8-4 · OR 90

Thistledown · Race 6 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m

#1

Rank

Odds

8/5

Win Prob

87%

Place Prob

62%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength58%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.9 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Churchill Downs 21/11/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 81 · 7f 118 · below its mark21/11/2025 · OR 81 par21/11C8OR 81C8 @ Oaklawn Park 20/12/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 78 · 1m 119 · below its mark20/12/2025 · OR 78 parC8 @ Oaklawn Park 26/02/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 70 · 1m110y 122 · below its mark26/02/2026 · OR 70 par26/02C8OR 70C8 @ Oaklawn Park 15/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 66 · 1m110y Fas 121 · below its mark15/03/2026 · OR 66 parC8 @ Oaklawn Park 23/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 64 · 1m110y 122 · below its mark23/04/2026 · OR 64 par23/04C8OR 64C5 @ Thistledown 18/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 70 · 1m 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/05/2026 · OR 70 parC5 @ Thistledown 25/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 74 · 1m 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/06/2026 · OR 74 par25/06C5OR 74C5 @ Thistledown 06/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 78 · 1m 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/07/2026 · OR 78 parC7 @ Thistledown 22/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 81 · 1m Fas 123 · beat its mark22/07/2026 · OR 81 par22/07C7OR 81projClass-projected finish: 1st of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-22Thistledown?1st1st0
2026-07-06Thistledown?1st-1th+2
2026-06-25Thistledown?1st-1th+2
2026-05-18Thistledown?1st-1th+2
2026-04-23Oaklawn Park?2nd3rd−1
2026-03-15Oaklawn Park?6th7th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/1115/0325/0622/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +4.5% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/11/20258th20/10%13%+0.13
20/12/20257th12/137%14%-0.23
26/02/20269th9/153%0%-0.53
15/03/20266th7/282%17%-0.65
23/04/20262nd9/153%83%+0.31
18/05/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
25/06/20261st2/189%100%+0.11
06/07/20261st7/491%100%+0.09
22/07/20261st4/797%100%+0.03