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6yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 92
Thistledown · Race 6 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#6
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-21 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-09 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-03-23 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength74%
Delivery trend +0.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/01/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 12/02/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 04/03/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 25% | -0.49 |
| 23/03/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 09/04/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 60% | +0.34 |
| 21/04/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 11/05/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 75% | +0.38 |
| 24/06/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 20% | -0.62 |
| 20/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 75% | -0.01 |