Thru The Vine

8yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 86

Thistledown · Race 6 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m

Rank

Odds

15/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength25%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.7

Today:

Class gap: -0.2

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-07	Thistledown	?	6th	7th	−1	2.8
2026-07-28	Thistledown	?	4th	5th	−1	4.8
2026-06-11	Thistledown	?	4th	5th	−1	4.8
2026-04-09	Mahoning Valley	?	2nd	1st	+1	9.2
2026-03-11	Mahoning Valley	?	3rd	2nd	+1	8.2
2026-03-04	Mahoning Valley	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 4-6 · 68%

▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price

Trend▼

Strength0%

Delivery trend -7.6% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
20/12/2025	4th	20/1	0%	50%	+0.50
05/02/2026	2nd	16/1	16%	88%	+0.72
12/02/2026	1st	15/2	61%	100%	+0.39
04/03/2026	3rd	7/2	82%	50%	-0.32
11/03/2026	3rd	15/2	61%	67%	+0.06
09/04/2026	2nd	15/2	61%	80%	+0.19
11/06/2026	4th	6/1	68%	25%	-0.43
28/07/2026	4th	20/1	0%	25%	+0.25
07/09/2026	6th	20/1	0%	0%	0.00