4
Count On Me
4yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 33
Thistledown · Race 7 - Claiming · 1m
#6
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-05 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-08 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-24 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-12-09 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength41%
Delivery trend -0.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/10/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 22/10/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 19/11/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |
| 09/12/2025 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 24/03/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 08/04/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 05/05/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 20/08/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 14/09/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |