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2

Exaltada

4yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 58

Thistledown · Race 7 - Claiming · 1m

#2

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

31%

Place Prob

33%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength87%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: +1.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Thistledown 02/06/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 58 · 6f Fas 115 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/06/2025 · OR 58 par2/06C5OR 58C5 @ Thistledown 25/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 56 · 1m Fas 115 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/06/2025 · OR 56 parC5 @ Thistledown 11/08/2025 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 67 · 6f Fas 117 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark11/08/2025 · OR 67 par11/08C5OR 67C5 @ Thistledown 23/09/2025 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 69 · 1m 115 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark23/09/2025 · OR 69 parC5 @ Mahoning Valley 21/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 58 · 6f 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/10/2025 · OR 58 par21/10C5OR 58C5 @ Mahoning Valley 05/11/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 55 · 1m 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/11/2025 · OR 55 parC5 @ Thistledown 16/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 52 · 6f Fas 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 52 par16/05C5OR 52C8 @ Thistledown 25/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 54 · 1m 119 · beat its mark25/06/2026 · OR 54 parC8 @ Thistledown 28/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 56 · 1m 119 · beat its mark28/07/2026 · OR 56 par28/07C8OR 56projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-28Thistledown?3rd3rd0
2026-06-25Thistledown?3rd3rd0
2026-05-16Thistledown?3rd0th+3
2025-11-05Mahoning Valley?7th4th+3
2025-10-21Mahoning Valley?3rd0th+3
2025-09-23Thistledown?7th4th+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/0623/0916/0528/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength78%

Delivery trend +2.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/06/20254th15/261%40%-0.21
25/06/20251st5/174%100%+0.26
11/08/20257th15/261%0%-0.61
23/09/20257th3/184%0%-0.84
21/10/20253rd16/116%71%+0.56
05/11/20257th9/276%14%-0.62
16/05/20263rd12/137%60%+0.23
25/06/20263rd5/174%67%-0.07
28/07/20263rd9/276%75%-0.01