6
I Belong First
4yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 62
Thistledown · Race 7 - Claiming · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
9/5
Win Prob
51%
Place Prob
42%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength35%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-20 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength91%
Delivery trend +2.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10/2025 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 17% | -0.66 |
| 08/12/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 20/02/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 38% | -0.26 |
| 20/04/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 86% | +0.49 |
| 12/05/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 67% | -0.20 |
| 02/06/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 17% | -0.57 |
| 25/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 83% | +0.12 |
| 28/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 88% | +0.02 |
| 24/08/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 75% | -0.14 |