Lesotho
5yo Mare · 8-7 · OR 53
Thistledown · Race 7 - Claiming · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 5 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.8 /10 (raw 5.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-04-08 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-03-25 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2026-02-24 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-01-22 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2025-12-23 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -5.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/02/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 21/10/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 14% | -0.12 |
| 05/11/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 23/12/2025 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 22/01/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 24/02/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 25/03/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 80% | -0.11 |
| 08/04/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 40% | -0.23 |
| 13/08/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |