5
Mac's Cailin
5yo Mare · 8-7 · OR 49
Thistledown · Race 7 - Claiming · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Thistledown | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-24 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Thistledown | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-26 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 4-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength12%
Delivery trend +2.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/03/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 24/03/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 08/04/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 71% | +0.03 |
| 02/05/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 26/05/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 33% | -0.35 |
| 23/06/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 28/07/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 24/08/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 07/09/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |