7
Airforce Lightning
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 64
Thistledown · Race 8 - Claiming · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength2%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-12-10 | Turfway Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 2-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength59%
Delivery trend -0.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/04/2025 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 13% | -0.14 |
| 26/06/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 14/07/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 10/12/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 78% | -0.04 |
| 29/04/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 10/06/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 08/07/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 28/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 78% | +0.01 |
| 26/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 86% | +0.00 |