5
Crackle
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 63
Thistledown · Race 8 - Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength30%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-05 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength82%
Delivery trend +3.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/02/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 38% | -0.36 |
| 20/02/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 13/03/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 05/05/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 75% | +0.28 |
| 09/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 75% | -0.18 |
| 29/06/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 57% | -0.19 |
| 20/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 86% | +0.03 |
| 17/08/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 60% | -0.16 |
| 09/09/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 60% | -0.01 |