Mali Bali
6yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 65
Thistledown · Race 8 - Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
25%
Place Prob
27%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 3.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-20 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-06-08 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-03-31 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-16 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-02 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +0.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/12/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 89% | +0.05 |
| 24/12/2025 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 17% | -0.69 |
| 01/02/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 02/03/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 60% | -0.28 |
| 16/03/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 80% | +0.12 |
| 31/03/2026 | 6th | 5/2 | 87% | 0% | -0.87 |
| 25/05/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 08/06/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 25% | -0.28 |
| 20/06/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |