2
Tall Girl
6yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 65
Thistledown · Race 8 - Claiming · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Mountaineer | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Thistledown | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-31 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-16 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 4-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength4%
Delivery trend -4.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/01/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 22/01/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |
| 23/02/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 16/03/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 20% | -0.66 |
| 31/03/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 33% | -0.52 |
| 02/05/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 25/05/2026 | 8th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 08/07/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 17% | -0.31 |
| 26/08/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |