Timely Secret
6yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 71
Thistledown · Race 8 - Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
56%
Place Prob
41%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-07-09 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-03-05 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-02-03 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +0.4% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 1st of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 06/11/2025 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 40% | -0.13 |
| 06/01/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 29% | -0.35 |
| 03/02/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 43% | -0.10 |
| 05/03/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 09/07/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |
| 30/07/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 17/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 80% | -0.13 |
| 07/09/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |