8
Merci Agathe
2yo Filly · 8-8
Toulouse · Prix Georges Sicard Claiming · 6f 211y
#3
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼3
Strength94%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 6.1)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.1
Today:
Class gap: +3.4
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Bordeaux Le Bouscat | 2 | 11th | 4th | +6 |
| 2026-08-23 | Dax | ? | 3rd | -1th | +3 |
| 2026-07-31 | Dax | ? | 2nd | -2th | +3 |
| 2026-07-17 | Dax | ? | 7th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-07-01 | Nantes | ? | 9th | 5th | +3 |
| 2026-06-17 | Salon-De-Provence | ? | 4th | 0th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength98%
Delivery trend +3.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/04/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |
| 08/06/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 13% | -0.14 |
| 17/06/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |
| 01/07/2026 | 9th | 22/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 17/07/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 31/07/2026 | 2nd | 22/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 23/08/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 82% | +0.03 |
| 12/09/2026 | 11th | 100/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |