10
Fleur D'oranger
3yo Filly · 8-12
Toulouse · Prix Young Tiger Maiden · 1m 3f 204y
#11
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼4
Strength88%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.5
Today:
Class gap: +3.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-28 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-04-27 | Bordeaux Le Bouscat | ? | 4th | 0th | +4 |
| 2026-04-06 | Toulouse | ? | 2nd | -2th | +4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Toulouse | ? | 3rd | -1th | +4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1423% of fieldRange 7-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength35%
Delivery trend -14.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/03/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 75% | -0.01 |
| 06/04/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 88% | +0.01 |
| 27/04/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 70% | -0.12 |
| 28/05/2026 | 11th | 15/2 | 61% | 17% | -0.44 |