4
Neptune Bailly
3yo Filly · 8-12
Toulouse · Prix Young Tiger Maiden · 1m 3f 204y
#2
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
9%
Place Prob
15%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼4
Strength91%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.5
Today:
Class gap: +3.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | La Teste De Buch | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | Mont De Marsan | ? | 2nd | -2th | +4 |
| 2026-07-29 | Mont De Marsan | ? | 4th | 0th | +4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Bordeaux Le Bouscat | ? | 9th | 5th | +4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1492% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +15.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/06/2026 | 9th | 22/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 29/07/2026 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 63% | +0.57 |
| 17/08/2026 | 2nd | 22/1 | 0% | 90% | +0.90 |
| 05/09/2026 | 7th | 18/1 | 5% | 45% | +0.40 |