IvyArcIvyArc
9

Frejulfe

3yo Filly · 8-8

Toulouse · Prix De L'ariege Handicap · 1m 2f 205y

#2

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 5.8)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ La Teste De Buch 25/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR - · 1m1f97y Hvy 12325/09C5C8 @ Bordeaux Le Bouscat 14/10/2025 · Pos 11th of 13 · OR - · 7f209y GS 12814/10C8C0 @ Tarbes 17/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR - · 1m2f96y Sft 11717/04C?3 @ Dax 08/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 1m3f95y Gd 1228/073C0 @ Vichy 21/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR - · 1m3f204y Hvy 12721/07C?C0 @ Dax 23/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 1m3f95y Ver 11823/08C?projClass-projected finish: 4th of 11
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-23Dax?1st1st0
2026-07-21Vichy?8th8th0
2026-07-08Dax32nd2nd0
2026-04-17Tarbes?5th5th0
2025-10-14Bordeaux Le Bouscat?11th11th0
2025-09-25La Teste De Buch?8th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/0914/1017/048/0721/0723/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength73%

Delivery trend -5.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/09/20258th25/10%13%+0.13
14/10/202511th80/10%17%+0.17
17/04/20265th33/10%56%+0.56
08/07/20262nd11/486%88%+0.02
21/07/20268th4/179%36%-0.43
23/08/20261st9/276%100%+0.24