10
Ile Aux Roses
3yo Filly · 8-7
Toulouse · Prix De L'ariege Handicap · 1m 2f 205y
#1
Rank
Odds
13/1
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
96%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | La Teste De Buch | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Mont De Marsan | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-15 | La Teste De Buch | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Tarbes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Dax | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-02-23 | Pau | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1180% of fieldRange 3-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength50%
Delivery trend +3.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/01/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 15/01/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 45% | -0.33 |
| 16/02/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 78% | -0.09 |
| 23/02/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 56% | -0.30 |
| 18/05/2026 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 03/07/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 15/07/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 29% | -0.40 |
| 29/07/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 26/08/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |