1
Bel Aristo
8yo Gelding · 9-6
Toulouse · Prix De Saint-serninprix De Saint-sernin Handicap · 1m 6f 200y
#3
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Toulouse | 3 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2025-06-22 | Toulouse | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-06-11 | Bordeaux Le Bouscat | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-05-07 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-04-20 | Toulouse | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-03-19 | Toulouse | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend +0.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/01/2025 | 1st | 17/2 | 55% | 100% | +0.45 |
| 29/01/2025 | 10th | 11/4 | 86% | 25% | -0.61 |
| 27/02/2025 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 92% | +0.50 |
| 19/03/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 20/04/2025 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 80% | +0.17 |
| 07/05/2025 | 7th | 11/1 | 42% | 54% | +0.12 |
| 11/06/2025 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 69% | +0.27 |
| 22/06/2025 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 88% | +0.30 |
| 02/09/2026 | 13th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |