8
Mediterranea Blues
9yo Gelding · 9-1
Toulouse · Prix De Saint-serninprix De Saint-sernin Handicap · 1m 6f 200y
#1
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
98%
Place Prob
78%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength24%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Deauville | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Dieppe | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Nantes | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-31 | Nantes | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-07 | Deauville | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength53%
Delivery trend +3.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08/2025 | 11th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 22/12/2025 | 14th | 28/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 29/01/2026 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 07/02/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 71% | +0.35 |
| 31/03/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 20% | -0.51 |
| 24/04/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 01/07/2026 | 9th | 13/2 | 66% | 20% | -0.46 |
| 18/07/2026 | 1st | 28/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 18/08/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |