5
Numerus Borget
8yo Gelding · 9-3
Toulouse · Prix De Saint-serninprix De Saint-sernin Handicap · 1m 6f 200y
#5
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 8.5 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Strasbourg | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Deauville | 3 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Vichy | 3 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Clairefontaine | 3 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | ParisLongchamp | 3 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-05-07 | ParisLongchamp | 3 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 2-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength36%
Delivery trend -9.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 77% | +0.51 |
| 18/04/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 80% | +0.64 |
| 23/04/2026 | 2nd | 22/1 | 0% | 92% | +0.92 |
| 07/05/2026 | 12th | 11/1 | 42% | 21% | -0.21 |
| 04/06/2026 | 13th | 10/1 | 47% | 20% | -0.27 |
| 03/07/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |
| 23/07/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 77% | +0.77 |
| 11/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 92% | +0.19 |
| 13/09/2026 | 11th | 4/1 | 79% | 29% | -0.50 |