7
I'm A Believer
6yo Gelding · 8-11
Toulouse · Prix De La Mediterranee Claiming · 1m 1f 207y
#9
Rank
Odds
18/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼5
Strength80%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 6.5)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.0
Today:
Class gap: +4.5
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Deauville | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Vichy | 2 | 14th | 7th | +6 |
| 2026-05-18 | Marseille-borely | 3 | 10th | 5th | +5 |
| 2026-05-06 | Marseille-borely | 4 | 5th | 1st | +4 |
| 2026-04-16 | Salon-De-Provence | 3 | 9th | 4th | +5 |
| 2026-03-10 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 6-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -3.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/01/2026 | 13th | 22/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 04/02/2026 | 2nd | 18/1 | 5% | 93% | +0.88 |
| 24/02/2026 | 9th | 5/2 | 87% | 47% | -0.40 |
| 10/03/2026 | 8th | 6/1 | 68% | 53% | -0.15 |
| 16/04/2026 | 9th | 4/1 | 79% | 27% | -0.52 |
| 06/05/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 20% | -0.54 |
| 18/05/2026 | 10th | 9/1 | 53% | 40% | -0.13 |
| 23/07/2026 | 14th | 33/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 18/08/2026 | 12th | 28/1 | 0% | 21% | +0.21 |