5
Melbora
6yo Mare · 8-12
Toulouse · Prix De La Mediterranee Claiming · 1m 1f 207y
#3
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼5
Strength100%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.1 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.7
Today:
Class gap: +4.8
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Deauville | 2 | 16th | 9th | +6 |
| 2026-08-03 | Clairefontaine | 2 | 5th | -2th | +6 |
| 2026-07-07 | Chantilly | 3 | 2nd | -3th | +5 |
| 2026-06-11 | La Teste De Buch | 4 | 2nd | -2th | +4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Marseille-borely | 3 | 1st | -4th | +5 |
| 2026-05-03 | ParisLongchamp | 2 | 10th | 3rd | +6 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend +1.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/03/2026 | 14th | 28/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 29/03/2026 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 42% | -0.16 |
| 20/04/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 03/05/2026 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 18/05/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 11/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 89% | -0.05 |
| 07/07/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 91% | +0.12 |
| 03/08/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 71% | +0.56 |
| 27/08/2026 | 16th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |