7
Cracking Good Time
3yo Filly · 8-10
Toulouse · Prix Jean De Tauriac Stakes · 1m 1f 207y
#1
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
94%
Place Prob
69%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼2
Strength63%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.7 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.0
Today:
Class gap: +1.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | La Teste De Buch | 2 | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-06-29 | Dax | 3 | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2026-04-19 | Toulouse | 1 | 9th | 5th | +4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Bordeaux Le Bouscat | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-01-30 | Pau | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 3-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength25%
Delivery trend -10.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/01/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 89% | +0.01 |
| 10/03/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 19/04/2026 | 9th | 7/2 | 82% | 11% | -0.70 |
| 29/06/2026 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 05/08/2026 | 4th | 13/8 | 91% | 40% | -0.51 |