3
Nalon River
3yo Colt · 8-13
Toulouse · Prix Jean De Tauriac Stakes · 1m 1f 207y
#4
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength14%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.0
Today:
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | Deauville | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-17 | Dax | 2 | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-05-23 | Bordeaux Le Bouscat | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-27 | Marseille-borely | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-12-09 | Chantilly | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-10 | Compiegne | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength59%
Delivery trend +2.3% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 10/10/2025 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 09/12/2025 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 67% | +0.09 |
| 27/04/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 78% | -0.06 |
| 23/05/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 17/07/2026 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 43% | -0.47 |
| 13/08/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 46% | +0.30 |