IvyArcIvyArc
4

New Run

3yo Colt · 8-13

Toulouse · Prix Jean De Tauriac Stakes · 1m 1f 207y

#7

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength22%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.3
Today:
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Pau 30/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 1m1f207y Std 12830/01C52 @ Pau 20/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR - · 1m1f207y Std 125 · HIGHER CLASS20/022C5 @ La Teste De Buch 01/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR - · 1m1f97y Sft 1251/04C52 @ Lyon-Parilly 29/04/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR - · 1m3f204y Sft 125 · HIGHER CLASS29/042C0 @ Toulouse 08/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR - · 1m1f207y Sft 1408/06C?projClass-projected finish: 8th of 8
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-08Toulouse?6th6th0
2026-04-29Lyon-Parilly210th7th+3
2026-04-01La Teste De Buch?3rd3rd0
2026-02-20Pau25th2nd+3
2026-01-30Pau?1st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/0120/021/0429/048/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 3-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -4.5% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/01/20261st13/266%100%+0.34
20/02/20265th2/189%0%-0.89
01/04/20263rd8/158%78%+0.20
29/04/202610th17/255%0%-0.55
08/06/20266th17/255%50%-0.05