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1

Aspic

3yo Filly · 10-0

Toulouse · Prix Du Bas Armagnac Stakes · 1m 2f 96y

#1

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

98%

Place Prob

84%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Mont De Marsan 12/03/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR - · 1m1f207y Hvy 12712/03C5C5 @ Dax 18/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR - · 1m2f96y Sft 12718/05C5C5 @ La Teste De Buch 03/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR - · 1m2f96y GS 1273/06C5C5 @ Tarbes 03/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 1m2f96y Sft 1273/07C5C5 @ La Teste De Buch 19/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR - · 1m2f205y GS 12919/08C5projClass-projected finish: 1st of 11
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-19La Teste De Buch?1st1st0
2026-07-03Tarbes?1st1st0
2026-06-03La Teste De Buch?3rd3rd0
2026-05-18Dax?2nd2nd0
2026-03-12Mont De Marsan?8th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/0318/053/063/0719/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 16100% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%

Delivery trend -0.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 16.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/03/20268th12/137%22%-0.15
18/05/20262nd16/116%91%+0.75
03/06/20263rd16/116%71%+0.56
03/07/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
19/08/20261st9/488%100%+0.12