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7

Nouba Vergoignan

3yo Filly · 9-1

Toulouse · Prix Du Bas Armagnac Stakes · 1m 2f 96y

#5

Rank

Odds

30/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Mont De Marsan 12/03/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR - · 1m1f207y Hvy 12712/03C5C5 @ Dax 01/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR - · 1m2f96y Sft 1271/05C5C5 @ Dax 18/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR - · 1m2f96y Sft 12718/05C5C5 @ Clairefontaine 14/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 3 · OR - · 1m3f204y GS 13614/08C5projClass-projected finish: 11th of 11
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-14Clairefontaine?3rd3rd0
2026-05-18Dax?7th7th0
2026-05-01Dax?4th4th0
2026-03-12Mont De Marsan?10th10th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/031/0518/0514/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1653% of fieldRange 11-16 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -18.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 16. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/03/202610th14/126%0%-0.26
01/05/20264th20/10%63%+0.63
18/05/20267th9/153%45%-0.07
14/08/20263rd13/266%0%-0.66