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3

Neron De La Brunie

3yo Gelding · 9-4

Toulouse · Prix Thalian Stakes · 1m 2f 96y

#1

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

92%

Place Prob

69%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 2.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Dax 01/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR - · 1m2f96y Sft 1171/05C5C5 @ Dax 18/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR - · 1m2f96y Sft 12318/05C5C5 @ La Teste De Buch 03/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 1m2f96y GS 1233/06C5C5 @ Mont De Marsan 17/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR - · 1m2f151y GS 12317/08C5projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-17Mont De Marsan?3rd3rd0
2026-06-03La Teste De Buch?1st1st0
2026-05-18Dax?3rd3rd0
2026-05-01Dax?2nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/0518/053/0617/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength49%

Delivery trend -25.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/05/20262nd18/15%89%+0.84
18/05/20263rd3/184%85%+0.00
03/06/20261st7/163%100%+0.37
17/08/20263rd7/282%67%-0.15