11
The Must
6yo Gelding · 10-8
Auteuil · Prix Grandlieu Listed Handicap Hurdle · 2m 3f 85y
#8
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲3
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 1
Class gap: -3.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Auteuil | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Auteuil | 1 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Auteuil | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-13 | Auteuil | ? | 1st | 9th | −7 |
| 2026-03-28 | Auteuil | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-03-07 | Auteuil | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1667% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength68%
Delivery trend +0.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 16.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/12/2025 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 11/12/2025 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 29/12/2025 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |
| 04/01/2026 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 07/03/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |
| 13/04/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 25/04/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 17/05/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 59% | +0.59 |
| 08/09/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 71% | +0.56 |