12:44 · Ripon

Theakston Brewing Legends Since 1827 EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

6fGoodClass 42YO onlyTURF9 runners
Ordered by projected finish
7
Market FavTop Pick1
OR 78
5/6
Scenic Route silks

Arnold, Lukas, Leitao and Wrigley

2yo Colt · 9-7

Sioux Nation - Twilight Thyme (Bahamian Bounty)

O J Orr60%0/2R A Fahey60%
23
8.0Going 8.0Class ↓2

Runner-up to a subsequent Group 2 winner at Thirsk on debut and again shaped well when third of 11 in maiden at York (7f) 20 days ago, form which has been boosted since. Remains with potential and can make his presence felt.

Class Advantage

14/08 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a14/086/09 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a6/09projClass-projected finish: 1st of 3
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength40%
Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good · 50%Dist: 6f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 2 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 90%14/08Pos 3 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 3 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 80%6/09
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 4-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▼
Strength61%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +23.2%Ahead 2/2
8
3
7/2
Time To Play silks

The Jc Organization Aps

2yo Colt · 9-7

Blue Point - Riyaza (Dark Angel)

P Mulrennan60%K R Burke60%
4
4.0Going 8.0

€100,000 son of Blue Point who looked in need of the experience on debut when fourth of 7 in novice at Haydock 23 days ago. Could be in the mix with improvement to come from his first outing.

Class Advantage

3/09 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a3/09
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength22%
Finish Dot = grade
Going: GoodDist: 6f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 4 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 50%3/09
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 2-7 · 50%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength62%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -28.9%Ahead 0/1
2
2
OR 78
15/8
Bulletsnap silks

Sheikh Juma Dalmook Al Maktoum

2yo Colt · 9-7

Minzaal - Bellanodine (Anodin)

Jason Hart60%W J Haggas
344
5.0Class ↓2

Has made the frame in novices all 3 starts, showing promise at Goodwood and Doncaster on first 2 occasions (the winner from Doncaster now a useful type). Lesser effort when fourth of 9 at Windsor last month, but no surprise to see him fare better with stand-side draw to work from.

Class Advantage

7/06 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a7/069/07 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a9/0729/08 · C4 · finish vs mark above29/08 · mark par29/08projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 3
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength46%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good · 33%Dist: 6f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 17/2 | Expected: 55%Pos 3 · SP 17/2 | Actual: 60%7/06Pos 4 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 4 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 50%9/07Pos 4 · SP 2/1 | Expected: 89%Pos 4 · SP 2/1 | Actual: 63%29/08
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 4-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength44%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -15.3%Ahead 1/3
5
4
100/1
Harry Akoya silks

White Rose Bloodstock

2yo Gelding · 9-7

Harry Angel - Brazen Akoya (Brazen Beau)

Faye McManomanN Tinkler
0
2.0

Down the field but hinted at ability when eleventh of 13 in maiden at Beverley (5f) on debut 10 days ago, making some progress after denied a clear run. Likely to need more time, though.

Class Advantage

16/09 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a16/09
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲1
Strength0%
Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good · 100%Dist: 6f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 11 · SP 80/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 11 · SP 80/1 | Actual: 17%16/09
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 9-14 · 50%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength8%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +16.7%Ahead 1/1
3
7
40/1
Commander Keith silks

Cragg Wood Racing

2yo Colt · 9-7

Calyx - Nuala Tagula (Tagula)

Oliver StammersK Frost
7
2.0

Went with little promise on debut when seventh of 12 in novice at Redcar 5 weeks ago. Will need to leave that first effort well behind.

Class Advantage

22/08 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a22/08
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲1
Strength0%
Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good · 100%Dist: 6f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 7 · SP 28/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 28/1 | Actual: 45%22/08
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 5-10 · 50%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength23%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +45.5%Ahead 1/1
6
5
33/1
Jean's Tipple silks

James and Susan Cookson

2yo Colt · 9-7

Victor Ludorum - Baileys Afterparty (Supplicant)

Connor Beasley60%P A Kirby70%
No form3.0
1st Tongue Strap +2

Foaled January 27. €62,000 yearling, Victor Ludorum colt. Half-brother to useful 6.5f/7f winner (including at 2 yrs) Half Sovereign. Has a fair standard to aim at making his first start. Wears tongue strap.

Class Advantage

No data

Previous Market Position

—
Projected finish6th of 938% of field
▬ NO HISTORYfirst run / unraced
Trend▬
Strength0%
1
6
33/1
Alfa Hoodini silks

Alfa Site Services Ltd

2yo Colt · 9-7

Minzaal - Shimmering Moment (Afleet Alex)

D NolanI Furtado
70
2.0Class ↓2

Good-bodied colt but has finished well held both starts so far, albeit facing a very stiff task in valuable sales race at Doncaster (6.5f) 16 days ago. This run should reveal more.

Class Advantage

27/08 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a27/0810/09 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a10/09projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 3
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼2
Strength59%
Finish Dot = grade
Going: GoodDist: 6f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 7 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 25%27/08Pos 16 · SP 250/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 16 · SP 250/1 | Actual: 6%10/09
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 9-9 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +15.6%Ahead 2/2
4
8
100/1
Cracking Toast silks

Victoria Wallace

2yo Colt · 9-7

Kameko - Dhuma (Falco)

Ryan SextonG Hanmer
8
2.0

Didn't offer much first time up when finishing eighth of 9 in novice at Chester 15 days ago. Looks one for the longer term.

Class Advantage

11/09 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a11/09
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲1
Strength0%
Finish Dot = grade
Going: GoodDist: 6f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 8 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 13%11/09
Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 6-11 · 50%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength6%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +12.5%Ahead 1/1
9
9
250/1
Ubettanotblink silks

Yorkshire Racer

2yo Gelding · 9-7

Ubettabelieveit - Marjong (Mount Nelson)

T EavesCraig Lidster
86
2.0

Has failed to beat a rival in his 2 outings, returning from 5 months off (gelded) when well held in 6-runner novice at Pontefract 9 days ago.

Class Advantage

21/04 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a21/0417/09 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a17/09
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%
Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good · 100%Dist: 6f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 8 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 0%21/04Pos 6 · SP 200/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 200/1 | Actual: 0%17/09
Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 9-9 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +0.0%Ahead 0/2