17:30 · Southwell

Tipsy Tapas At Winter Ladies Evening Handicap

1m 4f 15yStandardClass 53YO plusALLWEATHERHandicap8 runners
Ordered by projected finish
1
Top Pick1
OR 75
3/1
Patrol silks

Quest Thoroughbreds - Patrol

4yo Gelding · 10-0

Dark Angel - Laurelita (High Chaparral)

Jack Callan60%0/2Dylan Cunha60%
436323
7.0Going 10.0Class ↓3
Visor

Shaped well when placed over 1¼m in visor last 2 starts. Returns to Southwell where he has won twice, including over this trip, and looks sure to go well.

Class Advantage

11/06 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above11/06 · mark par11/0617/07 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above17/07 · mark par25/07 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above25/07 · mark par21/08 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above21/08 · mark par30/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above30/08 · mark par10/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above10/09 · mark par10/09projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 8
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength70%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: StandardDist: 1m 4f 15y · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 4 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 40%11/06Pos 3 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 3 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 33%Pos 6 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 64%25/07Pos 3 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 3 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 33%Pos 2 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 2 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 86%30/08Pos 3 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 3 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 75%10/09
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▬
Strength88%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +8.7%Ahead 2/4
6
2
OR 73
11/4
Roker Roar silks

Another Bottle Racing 2

3yo Gelding · 9-5

Galiway - All For Rome (Holy Roman Emperor)

Callum Hutchinson60%0/2A M Balding60%
743322
7.0

Placed on all 3 handicap starts this summer, most recently second of 7 over C&D 23 days ago when finding only one too strong. Should be competitive again.

Class Advantage

12/10 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a12/106/11 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a21/01 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a24/07 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above24/07 · mark par13/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above13/08 · mark par3/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above3/09 · mark par3/09projClass-projected finish: 1st of 8
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength61%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Standard · 50%Dist: 1m 4f 15y · 33%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 7 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 7 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 0%12/10Pos 4 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 67%Pos 3 · SP 10/11 | Expected: 95%Pos 3 · SP 10/11 | Actual: 33%21/01Pos 3 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 3 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 50%Pos 2 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 2 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 67%13/08Pos 2 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 2 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 83%3/09
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +4.9%Ahead 3/4
5
Market Fav3
OR 75
9/4
Madjid silks

Dr Jamal Ahmadzadeh & Mrs D Swinburn

3yo Gelding · 9-7

Time Test - Sign Of Life (Haafhd)

Daniel Muscutt70%Harry Charlton
957112
7.0

Improved when made all twice in last 3 starts, including over this trip at Kempton in August. Went off hard enough in front when second of 5 there over 11f last time and could prove hard to peg back if getting more the run of things here.

Class Advantage

15/05 · C5 · finish vs mark above15/05 · mark par15/055/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above5/06 · mark par2/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above2/07 · mark par18/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above18/07 · mark par26/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above26/08 · mark par2/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above2/09 · mark par2/09projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 8
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength34%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Standard · 33%Dist: 1m 4f 15y · 17%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 9 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 9 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 38%15/05Pos 5 · SP 7/4 | Expected: 91%Pos 5 · SP 7/4 | Actual: 33%Pos 7 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 7 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 40%2/07Pos 1 · SP 6/4 | Expected: 92%Pos 1 · SP 6/4 | Actual: 100%Pos 1 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 1 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 100%26/08Pos 2 · SP 4/9 | Expected: 98%Pos 2 · SP 4/9 | Actual: 75%2/09
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength62%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -5.1%Ahead 2/4
2
4
OR 73
5/1
Flightofthephoenix silks

Old Gold Racing, Tim Cottier & Partner

4yo Filly · 9-12

Phoenix Of Spain - Sea Mona (Tiz Wonderful)

Harry Vigors60%−5lbC Hills
772116
6.0Going 8.0

Got off the mark at Kempton in August then followed up at Ffos Las later that month before finishing sixth of 11 at Haydock 23 days ago under a 5 lb penalty. Good-value claimer aboard for the return to all-weather.

Class Advantage

10/01 · C5 · finish vs mark above10/01 · mark par10/0130/04 · C5 · finish vs mark above30/04 · mark par30/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above30/07 · mark par10/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above10/08 · mark par28/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above28/08 · mark par3/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above3/09 · mark par3/09projClass-projected finish: 4th of 8
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength23%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Standard · 50%Dist: 1m 4f 15y · 33%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 7 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 7 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 33%10/01Pos 7 · SP 17/2 | Expected: 55%Pos 7 · SP 17/2 | Actual: 25%Pos 2 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 2 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 80%30/07Pos 1 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 1 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 100%Pos 1 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 1 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 100%28/08Pos 6 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 6 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 50%3/09
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength63%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +2.0%Ahead 2/4
3
5
OR 73
20/1
Dream Harder silks

Mr Paul Farrell

7yo Gelding · 9-12

Muhaarar - Silent Thoughts (Galileo)

Charles BishopD M Loughnane60%
668147
5.0Class ↓3
Cheek pieces1st Tongue Strap +2

Won at Epsom over this trip in July with first-time tongue strap but ran no sort of race when seventh of 8 at Haydock 22 days ago, testing conditions a possible factor. Has won on the all-weather before so should run better this time.

Class Advantage

29/11 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above29/11 · mark par29/1117/06 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark below17/06 · mark par11/07 · C5 · finish vs mark below11/07 · mark par30/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above30/07 · mark par7/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above7/08 · mark par4/09 · C5 · finish vs mark below4/09 · mark par4/09projClass-projected finish: 8th of 8
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength54%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Standard · 17%Dist: 1m 4f 15y · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 6 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 6 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 0%29/11Pos 6 · SP 28/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 28/1 | Actual: 0%Pos 8 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 0%11/07Pos 1 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 1 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 100%Pos 4 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 4 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 50%7/08Pos 7 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 14%4/09
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 2-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength38%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +27.9%Ahead 3/4
7
6
OR 73
16/1
Molo Del Palazzo silks

Redvers, Pegum, Beckett & Wall

3yo Filly · 9-5

Palace Pier - Floret (Galileo)

Rhys Clutterbuck60%R M Beckett70%
632647
4.0
Blinkers

Shaped well when fourth of 12 at Goodwood in August, but looked half-hearted when last of 7 in a handicap at Sandown Park 15 days ago. Now steps up to a trip that should suit.

Class Advantage

12/05 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a12/0526/05 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a18/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above18/06 · mark par20/07 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark below20/07 · mark par28/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above28/08 · mark par11/09 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark below11/09 · mark par11/09projClass-projected finish: 7th of 8
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength50%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Standard · 17%Dist: 1m 4f 15y

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 6 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 6 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 55%12/05Pos 3 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 3 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 33%Pos 2 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 2 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 88%18/06Pos 6 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 6 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 17%Pos 4 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 73%28/08Pos 7 · SP 17/2 | Expected: 55%Pos 7 · SP 17/2 | Actual: 0%11/09
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength26%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +21.2%Ahead 2/4
8
8
OR 72
25/1
League Of Justice silks

Mostly Cloudy Syndicate

3yo Gelding · 9-4

Justify - Apt (A P Indy)

Billy Garritty60%G Tutty
6437
4.0

Standout effort when third of 9 in a novice over 7f at Newcastle 21 days ago. Well beaten on handicap debut at Redcar last time and a lot more needed upped further in trip here.

Class Advantage

23/07 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a23/0711/08 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a11/085/09 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a5/0915/09 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark below15/09 · mark par15/09projClass-projected finish: 5th of 8
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼1
Strength64%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Standard · 50%Dist: 1m 4f 15y

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 6 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 6 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 58%23/07Pos 4 · SP 17/2 | Expected: 55%Pos 4 · SP 17/2 | Actual: 57%11/08Pos 3 · SP 66/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 3 · SP 66/1 | Actual: 75%5/09Pos 7 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 0%15/09
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength41%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +17.4%Ahead 1/4
4
7
OR 70
25/1
Bondi silks

Miss Emily Carroll

4yo Gelding · 9-9

Saxon Warrior - Zagharit (Sir Percy)

Zak Wheatley60%0/1D Carroll
161867
3.0Class ↓3

Twice a winner for Richard Hannon last year and showed promise when seventh of 12 over C&D starting out for a new yard on return from 10 months off last time, not given a hard time. One to note if the market speaks in his favour.

Class Advantage

23/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above23/06 · mark par23/062/08 · C5 · finish vs mark below2/08 · mark par22/08 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above22/08 · mark par5/09 · C5 · finish vs mark below5/09 · mark par10/10 · C5 · finish vs mark above10/10 · mark par16/08 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above16/08 · mark par16/08projClass-projected finish: 6th of 8
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength61%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Standard · 33%Dist: 1m 4f 15y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 1 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 100%23/06Pos 6 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 6 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 17%Pos 1 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 1 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 100%22/08Pos 8 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 8 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 30%Pos 6 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 6 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 44%10/10Pos 7 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 45%16/08
Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 4-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength2%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +9.6%Ahead 3/4