IvyArcIvyArc
  1. home
  2. southwell
  3. race-3

16:20 · Southwell

Celebrate With Sponsorship At Southwell Racecourse Handicap (Div 1)

4f 215yStandardClass 43YO plusALLWEATHERHandicap10 runners
Ordered by projected finish
4
Market FavTop Pick1
OR 84
6/4
Elyam silks

Rjh Ltd & D Stone

Elyam

4yo Gelding · 9-11

Kingman - Tajaanus (Arcano)

Darragh KeenanM Herrington60%
3531
8.0

Only fair form in 3 starts in 2 years for Richard Hannon but much improved making debut for this yard (sold 14,000 gns) after more than 2 years off when easily winning a 6-runner novice at this C&D 23 days ago. Opening mark looks workable with further improvement likely.

Class Advantage

20/07 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a20/072/08 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a2/0824/08 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a24/083/09 · C4 · finish vs mark above3/09 · mark par3/09projClass-projected finish: 1st of 10
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength5%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Standard · 25%Dist: 4f 215y · 25%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 3 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 80%20/07Pos 5 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 5 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 56%2/08Pos 3 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 3 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 83%24/08Pos 1 · SP 11/8 | Expected: 93%Pos 1 · SP 11/8 | Actual: 100%3/09
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▬
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +10.5%Ahead 3/4
2
2
OR 86
7/2
Ziggy's Triton silks

Middleham Park Racing LIII

Ziggy's Triton

4yo Gelding · 9-13

Profitable - Ahazeej (Dubawi)

Daniel Muscutt70%D O'Meara70%
071009
4.0
Cheek pieces

Successful twice this year, taking advantage of a drop in grade when scoring over 5f at York in July. Not best placed when ninth of 21 in handicap at same track (5.4f, good) 38 days ago and drop to bare 5f should prove up his street.

Class Advantage

6/06 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above6/06 · mark par6/0620/06 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above20/06 · mark par10/07 · C4 · finish vs mark above10/07 · mark par28/07 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above28/07 · mark par15/08 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark below15/08 · mark par19/08 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above19/08 · mark par19/08projClass-projected finish: 4th of 10
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength59%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: StandardDist: 4f 215y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 11 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 11 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 47%6/06Pos 7 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 7 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 25%Pos 1 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 1 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 100%10/07Pos 10 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 10 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 59%Pos 10 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 10 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 18%15/08Pos 9 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 60%19/08
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength81%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +27.7%Ahead 3/4
7
4
OR 82
4/1
Paddy's Day silks

Ontoawinner 1

Paddy's Day

6yo Gelding · 9-9

Starspangledbanner - Elusive Gold (Elusive City)

Alex Jary7/30−3lbN Tinkler60%
727396
4.0Going 8.0
Tongue strap

Had a tremendous 2025 on all-weather, winning 6 times at Newcastle (all at 5f). Not in the same form on turf of late but he's now 6 lb lower than for his last win returned to this synthetic surface.

Class Advantage

13/04 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above13/04 · mark par13/046/06 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above6/06 · mark par26/06 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above26/06 · mark par3/07 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above3/07 · mark par29/08 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark below29/08 · mark par13/09 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above13/09 · mark par13/09projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 10
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength58%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Standard · 33%Dist: 4f 215y · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 7 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 7 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 33%13/04Pos 2 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 2 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 88%Pos 7 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 7 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 54%26/06Pos 3 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 3 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 67%Pos 9 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 0%29/08Pos 6 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 67%13/09
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +11.9%Ahead 1/4
5
3
OR 84
17/2
Spring Is Sprung silks

John Blackburn & Partner

Spring Is Sprung

7yo Gelding · 9-11

Oasis Dream - Kinematic (Kyllachy)

K T O'NeillP T Midgley
743203
6.0Class ↓3

Won at C&D in January and has made the frame on 4 of his last 5 starts, beaten only narrowly when third of 5 in handicap at Redcar (5f, good to firm, 4/1) 49 days ago. Should remain competitive.

Class Advantage

17/05 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above17/05 · mark par17/0531/05 · C4 · finish vs mark above31/05 · mark par20/06 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above20/06 · mark par10/07 · C4 · finish vs mark above10/07 · mark par28/07 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above28/07 · mark par8/08 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above8/08 · mark par8/08projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 10
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength65%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: StandardDist: 4f 215y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 7 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 7 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 50%17/05Pos 4 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 81%Pos 3 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 3 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 75%20/06Pos 2 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 2 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 91%Pos 16 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 16 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 32%28/07Pos 3 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 3 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 50%8/08
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength75%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +23.8%Ahead 3/4
1
5
OR 87
40/1
Layla Liz silks

Mr C R Hirst

Layla Liz

4yo Filly · 10-0

Inns Of Court - War Bride (War Blade)

William CoxA Watson60%
121008
3.0Going 9.0Class ↓3
Tongue strap

Made winning return from 14-month absence at Wolverhampton in March. Not in same form on next 2 starts and shaped as if needing the outing in a first-time tongue strap when eighth of 10 in handicap (22/1) at Lingfield (5f, all-weather) 14 days ago.

Class Advantage

26/12 · C5 · finish vs mark above26/12 · mark par26/1217/02 · C4 · finish vs mark above17/02 · mark par30/03 · C4 · finish vs mark above30/03 · mark par26/04 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark below26/04 · mark par20/06 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark above20/06 · mark par12/09 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark below12/09 · mark par12/09projClass-projected finish: 6th of 10
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength37%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Standard · 67%Dist: 4f 215y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 1 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 100%26/12Pos 2 · SP 6/4 | Expected: 92%Pos 2 · SP 6/4 | Actual: 80%Pos 1 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 1 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 100%30/03Pos 10 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 10 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 0%Pos 11 · SP 125/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 11 · SP 125/1 | Actual: 29%20/06Pos 8 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 22%12/09
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 5-10 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength8%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +11.4%Ahead 3/4
10
7
OR 76
11/1
Juan Les Pins silks

Mr Matthew Taylor

Juan Les Pins

9yo Gelding · 9-3

Invincible Spirit - Miss Cap Ferrat (Darshaan)

Mason Paetel1/1−3lbM Appleby
132906
4.0Class ↓3

Veteran who had a good spell in the spring (winning twice) and showed signs of a return to form when sixth of 13 in handicap at Newmarket (6f, good, 16/1) 35 days ago, racing freely without cover. Mark is steadily easing.

Class Advantage

10/04 · C5 · finish vs mark above10/04 · mark par10/0417/04 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above17/04 · mark par9/05 · C4 · finish vs mark above9/05 · mark par1/07 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above1/07 · mark par11/07 · C4 · finish vs mark below11/07 · mark par22/08 · C4 · finish vs mark above22/08 · mark par22/08projClass-projected finish: 5th of 10
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength52%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: StandardDist: 4f 215y

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 11/4 | Expected: 86%Pos 1 · SP 11/4 | Actual: 100%10/04Pos 3 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 3 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 87%Pos 2 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 2 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 94%9/05Pos 9 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 9 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 11%Pos 16 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 16 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 17%11/07Pos 6 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 6 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 58%22/08
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 4-10 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength24%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -3.6%Ahead 2/4
9
6
OR 80
20/1
Noble Vow silks

Mrs Fitri Hay

Noble Vow

3yo Gelding · 9-6

No Nay Never - Go Angellica (Kheleyf)

Alec Voikhansky0/1R Hannon80%
311000
3.0

Showed improved form when winning a Bath maiden (5.7f) in May and followed up in handicap at Haydock later that month. Saddle slipped next time and looked rusty after 2 months off when always behind at Glorious Goodwood. Had no luck in the run at Chester last week and we know he's better than that.

Class Advantage

4/05 · C4 · finish vs mark above4/05 · mark par4/0512/05 · C4 · finish vs mark above12/05 · mark par23/05 · C4 · finish vs mark above23/05 · mark par31/05 · C4 · finish vs mark below31/05 · mark par30/07 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above30/07 · mark par19/09 · C4 · finish vs mark below19/09 · mark par19/09projClass-projected finish: 10th of 10
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength35%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Standard · 17%Dist: 4f 215y · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 3 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 80%4/05Pos 1 · SP 11/10 | Expected: 94%Pos 1 · SP 11/10 | Actual: 100%Pos 1 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 1 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 100%23/05Pos 12 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 12 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 0%Pos 17 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 17 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 6%30/07Pos 11 · SP 28/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 11 · SP 28/1 | Actual: 0%19/09
Projected finish7th of 1033% of fieldRange 6-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength5%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -15.0%Ahead 2/4
3
8
OR 86
16/1
Bassenthwaite silks

Mr David W Armstrong

Bassenthwaite

3yo Gelding · 9-12

Ardad - Thirlmere (Mayson)

Georgia Dobie60%C G Cox
141090
3.0

Posted some solid winning form in a progressive juvenile season. Shaped better than the beaten distance in a fairly useful event at Newcastle (6f) in January and shaped as if he'd come on for the outing both starts this season, though has been off for another 2 months since the latter of those.

Class Advantage

9/07 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a9/0729/08 · C4 · finish vs mark below29/08 · mark par3/11 · C4 · finish vs mark above3/11 · mark par16/01 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above16/01 · mark par22/06 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark below22/06 · mark par25/07 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above25/07 · mark par25/07projClass-projected finish: 7th of 10
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength40%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Standard · 33%Dist: 4f 215y · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 1 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 100%9/07Pos 4 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 4 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 25%Pos 1 · SP 7/4 | Expected: 91%Pos 1 · SP 7/4 | Actual: 100%3/11Pos 10 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 10 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 10%Pos 9 · SP 28/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 28/1 | Actual: 0%22/06Pos 10 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 10 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 25%25/07
Projected finish8th of 1022% of fieldRange 3-10 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength16%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +4.5%Ahead 2/4
8
9
OR 81
40/1
Wateen silks

Apple Tree Stud

Wateen

3yo Filly · 9-7

Profitable - Maine Island (Shamardal)

Jack Callan60%R M H Cowell
143066
3.0Class ↓3

Possibly flattered when third in a 5f listed race in France on penultimate start for Alice Haynes but failed to come on her stable debut when trailing home last of 6 in handicap at Redcar (5f, good). Off 98 days. Makes tapeta debut.

Class Advantage

11/06 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a11/065/07 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark above5/07 · mark par9/08 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark above9/08 · mark par31/08 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark above31/08 · mark par31/05 · C4 · finish vs mark below31/05 · mark par20/06 · C4 · finish vs mark below20/06 · mark par20/06projClass-projected finish: 8th of 10
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼2
Strength70%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: StandardDist: 4f 215y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 10/11 | Expected: 95%Pos 1 · SP 10/11 | Actual: 100%11/06Pos 4 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 4 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 57%Pos 3 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 3 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 67%9/08Pos 10 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 10 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 0%Pos 6 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 6 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 17%31/05Pos 6 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 0%20/06
Projected finish9th of 1011% of fieldRange 7-10 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +6.4%Ahead 1/4
6
10
OR 83
66/1
Tees Spirit silks

A Nicholls

Tees Spirit

8yo Gelding · 9-10

Swiss Spirit - Mistress Twister (Pivotal)

J GarrittyAdrian Nicholls
500800
2.0Class ↓4

Beverley novice winner in 2024 but made little impact last season and seems easy to oppose after 12 months off.

Class Advantage

26/04 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark below26/04 · mark par26/0415/05 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark below15/05 · mark par7/06 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above7/06 · mark par9/08 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark below9/08 · mark par20/08 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark below20/08 · mark par27/09 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark below27/09 · mark par27/09projClass-projected finish: 9th of 10
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼2
Strength70%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: StandardDist: 4f 215y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 5 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 33%26/04Pos 17 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 17 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 0%Pos 12 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 12 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 39%7/06Pos 8 · SP 17/2 | Expected: 55%Pos 8 · SP 17/2 | Actual: 13%Pos 19 · SP 66/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 19 · SP 66/1 | Actual: 5%20/08Pos 10 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 10 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 0%27/09
Projected finish10th of 100% of fieldRange 8-10 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +0.3%Ahead 2/4