3
Delmegan
4yo Filly · 10-7
Auteuil · Prix De Maisons-laffitte Hurdle - Grade 3 · 2m 1f 196y
#1
Rank
Odds
11/8
Win Prob
94%
Place Prob
72%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength24%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.5 /10 (raw 1.7)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.4
Today: 1
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Auteuil | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | +0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Auteuil | 1 | 1st | 1st | +0 |
| 2026-03-01 | Auteuil | 1 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-11-15 | Auteuil | ? | 1st | 1st | +0 |
| 2025-10-12 | Auteuil | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-10 | Compiegne | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend +1.6% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/03/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 26/04/2025 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 17/05/2025 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 78% | -0.10 |
| 10/09/2025 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 60% | -0.34 |
| 12/10/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 88% | +0.16 |
| 15/11/2025 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 01/03/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 19/04/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 17/05/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 86% | -0.04 |