4
Happy People
5yo Gelding · 10-12
Auteuil · Prix Meli Melo Chase · 2m 1f 87y
#11
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength10%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.8
Today: 2
Class gap: +1.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Auteuil | 1 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-04-19 | Auteuil | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-23 | Compiegne | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-02-23 | Auteuil | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-28 | Compiegne | ? | +1 | ||
| 2025-10-25 | Compiegne | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1110% of fieldRange 3-11 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength31%
Delivery trend +2.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/04/2025 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 67% | +0.06 |
| 12/07/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 57% | -0.24 |
| 08/08/2025 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 92% | +0.31 |
| 10/09/2025 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 63% | +0.20 |
| 07/10/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |
| 25/10/2025 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 88% | +0.61 |
| 23/02/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 19/04/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 45% | -0.26 |
| 02/05/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |